Saturday, August 10, 2019

Future of the Economy

If we ever to become a fully-automated economy (and I think this is very likely), how will businesses profit? Sure, they'll save money by not having to pay employees, but who will they sell products and services to? If everyone is unemployed, then all your customers have no income. Let's look at some of our options:

A) Keep going the way we're going, and eventually wind up with a bunch of automated factories making only enough products to sell to other factory-owners. A small community of owners getting by on just what they need, while everyone else slowly starves to death, or gets put into prisons.
B) Give everyone universal basic income, creating a welfare state. Since no one is doing any actual work, then no one can increase their earning by working overtime or doing a good enough job to get a raise. The super rich are grandfathered into a life of luxury, while the general public are now locked into a lower-class lifestyle. (Not ideal, but at least in this scenario, no one is starving.)
C) Total communism. All the people who build the now-automated industries now no longer own them. All goods are services are free, provided by the machines, and money doesn't exist. Those in power would NEVER go for this idea, but if they did, we would have to completely rethink our philosophies on individualism. (If I ask the machines to give me a product, do I really own it? Can I trade it? Is stealing even a crime? So many questions.)
D) Ban all new technologies. Revert to a pretechnological society (like the Amish), so that no one loses their jobs to machines. This would solve one problem, but create a whole bunch of new ones, relating to travel, medicine, communication, and how to even regulate something like this. Most people would never go for this idea, but at least pollution would decrease.
E) Create work programs. Have the government or some other nonprofit organization create "busy work" for people. The problem with this is that if you're going to use public funding to pay people for work that doesn't need to be done, you can just as easily pay them without giving them work. In a way, we're back to option B.
F) Force employers to hire more people than they need. This would, first of all, create problems for small businesses. Include them, and you could bankrupt them from over-hiring; exclude them, and you could be taking away their best workers. Second, you would have companies keeping employees standing around with nothing to do for much of the day. (This is already a problem for many companies, which guarantee workers a certain number of hours.) Employers would be spending money on overhead just to keep the lights on in a building where workers aren't working. Counterintuitively, it would be cheaper to pay employees NOT to come in to work. Of course, this raises another set of questions. How much does everyone get paid for not working? Do they all get paid the same, or is pay rate based on the value of the work they would have been doing? And what's to stop someone from claiming that they would be doing a great job, when in fact, if they had come in to work, they would have been slacking off?
G) Capitalism-communism hybrid. Basically, remove all wealth that is already established, then give everyone an "allowance" to spend on whatever they want. (This runs into some of the same problems as in option C, but not all.) The big issue here is that some people are going to want to trade with each other, and when that happens, it's only a matter of time before a second wealth imbalance starts to emerge. Sooner or later, someone is going to end up in debt to someone else to the point where even the allowance can't keep up, and we're right back where we started.
H) Agrarian sanctuaries. Let the rich and powerful live their lives as they wish, but give the poor and unemployed free parcels of land, so they can start growing vegetables and so on, becoming self-sustaining. First problem with this is that it's still unfair and locks people into a class system. Second, not everyone is cut out to be a farmer. And third, eventually, the agrarian societies would improve their own technology and return to where we are today.
I) Matrix. Total emersion in a virtual world, where the problems of society can be programmed away. The big problem here is that any hacker would now have the power of a wrathful god.
J) Wipe out humanity. Let evolution start over. (Let's call this a last resort.)

Those are all the ones I can think of. Any more bright ideas from anyone else?

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